SOVIET VOROSHILOV ACADEMY LECTURES
OPERATIONS

GENERAL

The Soviet planning process includes a great deal of time and effort in making detailed calculations. Therefore it is important for the students to learn the proper procedures for calculating a wide variety of information about both enemy and friendly forces. These calculations occur at each stage of the decision process.

CLARIFICATION OF THE MISSION

At this time the commander must calculate the depth and width of the front missions, the time to achieve these and the required rate of advance. From these calculations he derives his general idea of the number of armies required and their echelonment and formation. He and/or the Chief of Staff must calculate the time available for planning and preparation of the troops for combat. From this they develop a time schedule for accomplishing all these needed actions.

ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION

ENEMY

During this phase the commander first calculates the density of enemy forces in each different area and for various depths. He calculates the enemy nuclear capability in terms of the number of targets and kilotons it is possible for the enemy to deliver. He also calculates enemy artillery capabilities in terms of hectares of target per salvo, aircraft capabilities in terms of numbers of sorties per day and enemy air defense in terms of numbers of aircraft that can be shot down at one time.

The commander calculates the time and space factors, first those related to mobilizing and preparing the units for combat and then those that show when units can reach their combat starting locations. For these he includes the enemy operational and strategic reserves in order to establish how soon they will reach the areas he believes the enemy will want to assign to them. These calculations make use of simple rate of movement formulas and established norms for movement over various roads as well as norms for accomplishing each activity such as debarking, dismounting, deploying and etc. Next the calculations take into consideration the disturbances to the time schedules that might be introduced by disruptions to the line of communications, blocking of ports, destruction of air fields and other similar events.

The probable enemy concept of operations is assessed by estimating the length of delay actions he can achieve on each line based on the calcuation of the density of forces and means. If the density is one company per kilometer then a division can hold for a day or so within its 12 km deep position. At this time the possible locations at which the enemy reserves can intervene in the battle are noted from the calculation of when and from where they can launch counterattacks.

If the initial enemy position is to the rear of his prefered battle position, calculations are made to find out if a meeting engagement between the large units is to be expected.

FRIENDLY

When the commander turns to the estimate of friendly forces he makes many of the same calculations. First there is the movement from garrison including time to mobilize and bring the forces to full combat readiness and time to establish the unit attack groupings. These calculations are mostly reconfirmation of existing planned activities. The commander can turn to the staff all of whom know what will be asked of them ahead of time to insure that units can arrive on time. The calculations require information on the status of units, and where they draw supplies or how the supplies will be delivered.

The combat capability of friendly forces includes calculation of nuclear capability in kilotons and numbers of warheads, artillery firepower in hectares of target per salvo, air defense capability in numbers of aircraft destroyed and aircraft in squadron sorties per day. The air defense calculations are especially complex since they involve detailed numerical factors for each type of weapon and target acquisiton.

The commander must next establish the correlation of troops and means. This is shown in a table titled COMPOSITION OF FORCES AND DENSITY. The friendly and enemy forces are shown in terms of nuclear rounds, nuclear delivery means, divisions, artillery, tanks, antitank missiles, air defense weapons, and aircraft. The ratios are calculated using quantitative and qualitative factors and are figured for the front as a whole and for each individual axis and for each relevant depth of mission. They are calculated for; the start of the operation, after the initial nuclear strike, at the end of the first day, at the end of the immediate mission of the armies, at the end of the immediate mission of the front, and at the end of the subsequent mission of the front.

The calculations for correlation and density for each of the points in time after the start involve calculations of the estimated losses that each side will have incured. The calculation for losses in the initial nuclear strike is made by taking the total number of rounds allocated (or estimated for the enemy) and from this the number and yield that will be targeted against divisions to get a number of rounds per division. Then norms are applied to estimate losses. One norm is that if a division is hit by more than 6 -7 nuclear rounds it suffers medium damage and is incapacitated. If it is hit by more than 12 rounds it is destroyed. The effect of losses is estimated and 30% is considered heavy casualties while 50 - 60% will equal destruction. Losses for each day of combat are calculated according to norms for conventional and nuclear warfare. The correlation at the end of the first day would include loss norms of about 5% for personnel and 8% for tanks and lesser numbers for other equipment. One norm is that in 7 days of fighting a loss of 50 - 80% for tanks is expected. Some other norms are for army level in conventional war 1.1 - 1.3 % personnel per day; for nuclear 3.8 - 5.3 % per day; and 7.7 - 10.4 for the entire operation in conventional war and 27 - 42 % for the entire operation in nuclear war. Equipment loss norms include conventional of 8-9% per day and 40 - 60 % for vehicles and 50 - 80 % for tanks All these norms are used to calculate the correlation of remaining forces for the various subsequent times. For instance, at the end of 5 days in an operation it might be expected that the attacker will have suffered losses of 7% in personnel, 40% in tanks, 25% in APC and 35% in other vehicles while the defender will have suffered losses of 5% in personnel, 35% in tanks, 20% in APC and 30% in vehicles.

After both sides are calculated it is possible to make a deduction on the proper distribution of troops to the several axes and then to distribute the combat support arms and reserves, naval and airborne assaults and other support.

An important set of calculations is made for electronic warfare in determining how many communications links above division can be neutralized by the available REW assets. Each radio electronic warfare battalion has a capability based on its means to jam a certain number of radio nets of a certain power or type. The enemy can also jam certain links.

When the missions of the armies are determined there are then calculations related to the coordination of forces. These are to establish how groupings will be created and what times will be involved. A table showing who will do what at each time is prepared.

The locations and times for movement of the command posts are calculated based on the planned course of the offensive. Then the role of adjacent forces are considered. The calculations are made to see how the missions of adjacent forces might involve the front and vice versa. For instance the time an airborne division can sustain itself before linkup with ground forces is used in calculating when the airborne operation should take place. One of the adjacent forces is the strategic rocket and air force. The timing of their strategic nuclear strike if any or the strategic air operation is considered in calculations on when to launch the operational strike.

TERRAIN

The terrain is then considered in calculations to refine the plans. The capacity of routes, ports, airfields, bridges, etc is considered to insure that the forces can move as planned. The economic situation in the theater is the basis for calculations on the availability of local resources such as supplies and transportation means.

SAMPLE CALCULATIONS

Exercise calculations: Determine the time and distance to the line of meeting with a counter-attacking enemy reserve when:
----- the enemy reserve (up to 2 mech and 2 tank battalions) is sighted 28 km from the forward line of division's attacking troops:
----- enemy's speed of advance is about 15 km/hr:
----- a delay of 30 minutes is expected in the enemy movement due to a narrow area along the road:
----- planned air strikes and artillery fire's are expected to delay the enemy for another 40 minutes:
----- the speed of own attacking forces in the first echelon is 4 km/hr due to isolated enemy's strong points across the front:
----- the attack on enemy's position 4 km further in the depth (the troops are expected to reach there within an hour) is expected to delay 45 minutes for minor regroupment.

Solution:
Use the following formula:

where
t_v=expected time of meeting the enemy in hours:
D=distance between opposing forces in km
t_n=total delay time for own forces in hours
V_n=speed of movement of own forces
t_p=total delay time for enemy forces
V_p=speed of movement of enemy forces


Results:
t_v={28 + [(0.75 x 4) + (1.15 x 15)]} ÷ (4 + 15)
t_v=[28 + (3 + 17.35)} ÷ 19
t_v=(28 + 20.25) ÷ 19 : t_v=2.54 or 2 hrs and 33 minutes

Now to determine the distance of meeting with the enemy use this formula:

l_p=V_n (t_v - t_n )
l_p=4 (2.54 - 0.75)
l_p=7.16 km


This means that the first echelon forces will be able to destroy the enemy in this intermediate defensive position before it can launch its counter-attack, provided the enemy's reserve is delayed by air strikes and artillery fire for not less than 40 minutes and the enemy does have to slow down 30 minutes delay to cross the narrow pass and own forces do not take more than 45 minutes to regroup in order to continue the attack.

If the division commander determines that the line of meeting with the enemy is not convenient, he can chose to repel the counter-attack from a line further in back or he might want to further delay the enemy so that the first echelon troops can move further than 7.16 km before the enemy launches his counter-attack. This calculation can also be conducted by filling in the pre-prepared form.

Exercise: On the basis of the assumptions which were mentioned in exercise 10 determine the number of anti-tank weapons (ATGM and AT guns) to repel the enemy tanks when:

-----the number of enemy tanks are estimated to be 80:
-----no less than 50% of enemy tanks must be destroyed:
----- the probability of destruction of a single tank by one weapon with one shot is 0.2:
----- up to 8 rounds may be fired by each weapon in the time the tanks are located in the effective zone of fire:


Solution: To determine the required number of anti-tank weapons use the formulas or the nomogram.


1. formulas;











where:
M_n=degree of destruction of artillery tanks (in percentage);
P₁=probability of destruction by one weapon in one shot;
N=required number of anti tank weapons to accomplish the mission;
m=weapon rate of fire or number of shots one weapon can shoot during the time the target is in within range;
M=expected number of attacking tanks.


This method is a lengthy one and difficult to use under field conditions.

2. The nomogram can be used for up to 40 tanks. However, for over 40 tanks divide the number into pieces less than 40 and calculate on the basis of the nomogram and add the results: 60=40 + 20, or 77=40 + 37 etc.

In this example the following calculation can be done on the nomogram: Draw a perpendicular line from 0.5 mark on the "Required amount of destruction of targets" scale to intersect with the "Probability of target destruction by one round 0.2" curve. From this point draw a horizontal line to the intersection with the "Number of attacking ground targets - 40" line and then a vertical line up to the "Number of firing by one weapon - 8" line. From this point go along the horizontal to "Required number of antitank weapons" scale and read 17 then multiply it by 2 to get the required number of AT weapons for 80 tanks: 17 x 2=34 AT weapons.

Exercise calculation: The division commander decided to use the divisional AT reserve at the line for repulsing the enemy's counter-attack, which previous exercise set at 7 km up from the current forward line of the first echelon troops. The AT reserve is now 8 km from the forward line. The enemy is 21 km away from the line of repulsion of counter-attack with an expected delay of 1 hour and 10 minutes on the way (due to planned air strikes and artillery's fire). The speed of advance of the enemy is 15 km/hr the effective range of AT weapons is 3 km. The AT reserve will need 30 minutes to deploy on the fire line and prepare for action. It's speed of movement 12 km/hr.

Determine how much time is available for the division commander and staff to assign mission to the AT reserve.


Solution:

Use the following formula:

where:
t=time available for the commander and his staff to assign mission
D=distance of the enemy to the line of contact
t_p=total delay time for enemy forces
V_p=speed of movement of enemy forces
d=effective range of AT weapons
t_n=total time required for AT reserve to move to the line of the repulsion of the enemy's counter-attack and time to prepare for action.


1. First determine the t_n:



where:
t_n=time for AT reserve to move and prepare for action
V_n=speed of movement of AT reserve
t_r=time to prepare for action
t_n=(8 + 7) ÷ 12 + 0.5=1.75


2. Now determine the t:
t={[D + (t_p x V_p)] - d} ÷ V_p - t_n
t={[21 + (1.15 x 15)] 2} ÷ 15=- 1.75
t=(21 + 17.5) -2 ÷ 15=- 1.75
t=38 - 2 ÷ 15=- 1.75
t=36 ÷ 15=- 1.75
t=2.25 - 1.75=0.5
t=30 minutes.


This means that the division commander and staff should assign mission to the AT reserve within 30 minutes (not later) so that the AT reserve will arrive and get prepared on the line of repulsion before the enemy tanks reach the effective range of AT weapons at the line.

Exercise: In planning the commitment of divisions's second echelon the area within 4 km of the enemy intermediate defensive position, which is to be attacked by the second-echelon, is open and when the regiment moves and deploys to company and platoon columns and assumes the combat formation in this area, it should be covered by artillery strikes conducted on enemy strong points at the line of commitment and on the flanks. The line of attack is 1 km and the line of fire safety is 400 m from enemy position. The speed of movement is 20 km/hr and speed of attack is 6 km/hr. Determine the duration of artillery strike to cover the deployment and attack of the second-echelon regiment.

Solution: To determine the duration of artillery strike calculate the time it takes the regiment to deploy and move to the line of attack and then to the safety line of fire in front of enemy position (400m).
Use equations:

t=t_a + t_r ...........(1)











where:
t=time of artillery strike;
t_a=time for crossing the attack line up to the fire safety line;
t_r=time spent from deployment in the company columns up to the line of attack;
D_a=distance of attack line from enemy position;
d=distance of fire safety line to the enemy position;
V_a=speed of movement in attack;
D_r=distance of deployment into company columns;
V=speed of movement of troops;

Results:
t_a=(1 -0.4) x 60 ÷ 6=6 minutes
t_r=3 x 90 ÷ 20=27 ÷ 2=13.5 minutes
t=t_a + t_r=6 + 13.5 approximately 20 minutes


This means that the artillery strike should be conducted for 20 minutes to cover the commitment of the second echelon regiment.

Exercise calculation: The division has accomplished its immediate mission and continues the attack in depth to complete the destruction of the enemy forces in its tactical zone and accomplish the long range mission by the end of the day. The first echelon regiments are fighting with the enemy forces, which conduct delaying action and cover the withdrawal of its main forces across the Schmalin River. Two enemy battalion size columns 15 km from the river are withdrawing to the river apparently to establish defense on the river. The division commander has decided to assign a forward detachment to prevent the arrival of these enemy battalions on the river. The distance to the enemy columns from the head of the assigned forward detachment is 15 km. A 20 minute delay is expected in the movement of enemy columns due to planned friendly air strikes. The speed of movement of enemy's columns is 15km/hr.

Determine the expected time and rate of overtaking of the withdrawing enemy by division's forward detachment.


Solution: Here the crucial issue is to overtake the enemy before he is able to cross and establish defense at the river.

1. First determine how long does it take the enemy to reach the river:
t=D + (t_p x V_p) ÷ V_p
t=time it takes the enemy to reach the river;
D=distance of the enemy to the river;
t_p=expected delay in enemy's movement;
V_p=speed of enemy's movement;

t=15 + (0.5 x 15) ÷ 15
t=15 + 7.5 ÷ 15=22.5 ÷ 15 1.5
t=1 hr and 30 minutes


Therefore the enemy's columns must be overtaken within less than 1.5 hours.

2. Assume that the speed of movement of the forward detachment is 20 km/hr:
Now - t_o=[D - (t_p x V_p )] ÷ (V_n - V_p )
t_o=time to overtake the enemy (hours);
D=distance to the enemy;
t_p and V_p=same as in 1;
V_n=speed of movement of own forces (forward detachment);
t_o=15 - (0.5 x 15) ÷ 20 - 15
t_o=15 - 7.5 ÷ 5
t_o=7.5 ÷ 5=1.5
t_o=1 hour and 30 minutes


This means that at a speed of 20 km/hr the forward detachment can not catch the enemy columns before they reach the river. In order to overcome this, either the speed of movement should be increased or the enemy should be further delayed by air strikes, airborne assault troop, artillery fires, mines etc.


3. In order to find the required speed of movement of the forward detachment to overtake the enemy in one hour perform the following calculation, using the formulas:

V_n={[D - t_p x V_p)] + (t_o x V_p)} ÷ t_o
V_n=[15 - (0.5 x 15)] + [(1 x 15)] ÷ 1
V_n=7.5 + 15 ÷ 1=22.5 ÷ 1=22.5
V_n=22.5 km/hr.


Therefore the speed of movement of the forward detachment should be at least 22.5 km per hour to ensure the enemy's interception within an hour. At that time the enemy will be 7.5 km from the river.
D=(t x V_p) - (t_p x V_p)
D=(1 + 15) - (0.5 x 15)
D=15 - 7.5=7.5 km

STAFF DUTIES FOR CALCULATIONS

The staff accomplishes the following calculations during preparation for the operation and during break through of enemy defense:

Chief of operations directorate:
----- calculation on time required to prepare;
----- movement, deployment, beginning of attack of prepared defense, for the main forces of army (division);
----- (The movement norms for road march in rear areas in daylight is 30 km/hr and night 20 km/hr, but when near the enemy the rate drops to 10-15 km/hr. Near means at the distance for which enemy heavy artillery can fire or about 12-15 km. Also, the deployment itself requires 20-30 minutes.
----- determine the correlation of forces:
----- over the entire frontage;
----- on the main axis;
----- on other axes;
----- at the end of the first day of operation;
----- at time of repelling enemy counterattack;
----- at time of commitment of second=-echelon;
----- during water crossings;
(The correlation is done with help of the table list of forces and means.)
----- conduct of calculations on combat capabilities of forces during destruction of enemy forces; (total sum of hectares and of the number of targets that can be destroyed in fire preparation period.)
----- calculations on commandant's service, how much forces are needed to accomplish tasks;
( For total length of distance and number of roads add the number of men, sergeants, officers, APC radio stations etc. required).


Chief of reconnaissance:
----- calculations on enemy capabilities during his attack with nuclear strike on our forces;
----- (total destruction capability and (three elements - fire capability, movement capability, cover capability and support elements including supplies etc.)
----- calculations of enemy capabilities during attack with conventional means; same elements
----- calculation of enemy capability during counter attack:
----- calculate time required for enemy to prepare move, deploy, and the time for his attack; (time to prepare and move from garrison, time to travel on roads and deploy into combat time to prepare forces etc.)
----- calculate enemy forces and means able to conduct counter attack; (analysis of forces available from current locations in time expected)
----- calculate artillery fire capabilities during counter attack
----- calculation capabilities on friendly radio electronic combat reconnaissance units OSNAZ. (how many enemy targets they can discover and track at the same time) at what ranges.
----- calculation of capabilities of friendly radio-technical electronic combat reconnaissance units OSNAZ. (
----- calculation of SPETZNAZ reconnaissance companies. time area targets to find etc. (per day recon 2 targets for each patrol in area of 10 by 10 km.
----- calculation capabilities of air reconnaissance; (how many targets at what ranges how fast how many aircraft are available their technical capabilities


Chief of artillery: \
----- calculation time for preparation, movement, deployment, and taking up artillery positions and prepare to open fire;
----- calculation on various artillery reconnaissance;
----- calculation various on artillery strikes in support of forward detachments and main forces;
----- calculations on density of artillery in the break through sector;
----- calculation and analysis of enemy defense (quantity of platoon strong points in forward line and in depth, artillery and mortar batteries, command posts, forces in second-echelon, reserves, positions of air defense rockets and units, anti-tank means and others)
----- calculation on organization of army, division, and regimental artillery groups.
----- calculations on fire capabilities of artillery;
----- calculation on capabilities of missile forces using nuclear, chemical, and conventional rockets. (
----- calculation of time for artillery preparatory fire, fire strikes, (means for preparatory fire) calculation on ammunition supplies; (
----- calculation on artillery support fire (strikes and barrages) and ammunition required;
----- calculation on anti-tank means and direct fire weapons during preparatory fire;
----- determine fire capability of the anti-tank reserve during repelling enemy counter-attack;
----- calculation on movement and shifting positions for artillery;


Commander of air forces (at front, or air representative at army)
----- calculation on air forces
----- calculation of fire capability of air forces during break through and during operation;
----- calculation of fire capability of helicopters during repelling enemy counter-attack;
----- calculation of fire capability of air forces during air support fire and accompanying fire;
----- calculation on time for preparation of air flights and movement and strikes in various levels of combat readiness against targets located in enemy rear areas;
----- calculation on repelling enemy air strikes by fighter aviation;
----- calculation various on air reconnaissance;
----- calculation on aerial photography;
----- calculation on delivery of reports about reconnaissance to the command post;


Chief of PVO:
----- calculation on combat capabilities of PVO forces of army during repelling mass enemy strikes and individual or small group strikes, during day and night and bad weather poor visibility conditions;( What area can be covered against air strike time to prepare numbers of rockets ready to fire
----- calculation on capabilities for observation and reconnaissance against enemy air forces; and warning forces;
----- calculation on repelling strikes by enemy by fighter aircraft at various levels of combat readiness and those on combat air patrol;


Chief of engineers:
----- calculation on engineer forces capabilities during opening lanes in mine fields;
----- capabilities of engineers during construction of mine fields;
----- calculation on creation of trenches strong points, cover for machines and vehicles, command points, etc.
----- calculation on engineer forces on opening column routes and roads in various terrain conditions;


Chief of radio electronic combat:
----- capabilities of radio units SPETZNAZ during jamming enemy radio electronic means;number of targets - they have designated capabilities and range and time for shift from one target to another - depends on training and on capability for recon to find targets to jam)
----- calculation of capabilities of radio technical units SPETZNAZ during covering forces from enemy direct bombardment; and maskirovka diversion of rockets etc.


Chief of chemical:


The staff performs the following calculations during repelling enemy sudden initial attack:
----- time enemy may be ready to attack and move deploy and strike with main forces;
----- enemy artillery capabilities aviation, and nuclear means;
----- time for preparation and open fire by artillery, rockets and aviation on enemy while moving forward;
----- calculation on combat capabilities of army forces;
----- correlation of forces and means in general and on each axis;


Staff calculations during meeting engagement:
----- calculation on location preparation, movement, deployment, and seizing the line of contact for the meeting engagement;
----- calculation on determining line for meeting the enemy in various conditions;
----- calculation on enemy combat capabilities;
----- calculation on preparation, movement, deployment, and attack by army main forces;
----- calculation on preparation, march, deployment, and occupation of firing positions and start of artillery fire strike on enemy;
----- calculation on combat capabilities of army forces;
----- correlation of fores of the sides in general and on each axis;


Staff performs similar calculations on repelling enemy counter-attack:
-----Staff calculations on commitment of second-echelon into engagement:
----- calculation on enemy combat capability;
----- calculation on preparation accomplish march, deployment, and enter engagement by second-echelon;
----- calculation of combat capability of army forces'
----- calculation on commandant service;
----- calculation analysis of enemy defense
----- calculation on time for preparatory fire and fire strikes, and ammunition supplies;
----- calculation on fire support and accompanying fire;
----- calculation on determination of anti-tank reserve capabilities;
----- calculation of capabilities mobile obstacle detachments to cover flanks;
----- calculation on density of artillery per km of front;
----- calculation on organization of artillery groups in division and regiments;
----- calculation on building routes by engineers;
----- calculation on opening lanes in enemy mine fields if any.
----- and others.


Staff calculations on forcing water obstacles:
----- calculation time for movement and deployment of forward detachments and forcing river by forward detachment.
----- calculation of time for movement, deployment, preparation, and forcing water obstacles by first echelon of army;
----- calculation on river crossing equipment for bridges, rafts, assault crossings, and swimming crossing;
----- calculation for creation of roads to crossing sites.
----- calculation on commandant's service in area of crossing with engineer forces;
----- calculation on organization of commandant's service by combined arms units and sub units during approach to crossing site.
----- calculation on fire capability of artillery, missile units PVO and combined arms formations;
----- calculation of capability of engineers for creating of bridges, fords and assault crossings.
----- calculation on preparation and flight crossing and seizing enemy bank by air assault operation.
----- calculation of combat capability of air forces to delay approaching enemy forces;
----- calculation of combat capability of fighter aviation to repel enemy air attack on crossing, by combat air patrol and air forces at air fields.


Staff also performs calculation of preparation and movement of command posts during the operation.