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Random House, N.Y. 2001, 144 pgs., index,
notes, maps, paperback
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Reviewer Comment:
I didn't realize when I ordered the book via Internet that it was written in
2001. The author's predictions, so far, have not occurred. But the book is
interesting and useful as an example of what can take place in a few years. The
author is a well known commentator on China today. The reader can compare his
description of China in 2001 with other references and then his expectations of
what might change with what has actually happened. His description of China in
the 1990's up to 2000 is a good supplement to Jonathan Ward's China's Vision
of Victory and Kai-Fu Lee's AI Super-powers China, Silicon Valley, and
the New World order. Gordon Chang's major mistake in prediction is his idea
that by joining the WTO China would be forced into making reforms that would
inherent disrupt the Party's power. He did not consider the Chinese ability to
cheat, ignore, and pretend to abide by the WTO, plus engage in massive
cyberwarfare and theft of foreign intellectual secrets. Also, while he does
note that already by 2000 foreign firms were eager to invest in China, he did
not consider the extreme lengths to which the foreigners would resort to get
into China and the ability of the Chinese to impose onerous demands before
allowing them to do so. And he could not imagine (I doubt if anyone could) the
rapidity by which thousands of Chinese entrepreneurs with very high computer-
tech skills would unleash an explosion of technological innovation as described
by Lee. The result of his correct observations about the fragile condition of
China in 2000 and misunderstanding about the Chinese methods for overcoming
them was to predict the 'collapse' claimed in his book title. The subsequent
almost two decades have witnessed quite the opposite result.
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Forward: The Final Chapter
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1 The Dinner Party - The Revolution Has Grown
Old
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2 Lake of Gasoline: The Discontent of the
People Is Explosive
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3 Industrial Theme Parks: State-Owned
Enterprises are Dying
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4 Future@China.communism: Is the Communist
Party Ready for the Internet?
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5 Life Everlasting: Industrial Policy Grants
Perpetual Existence to the Inept
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6 The Banks That Sank: Chinese Banks Will
Fail
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7 Biting the Snakes: The State Attacks the
Private Sector
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8 Highway Girls: China's Economy Stagnates
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9 Trade Charade: WTO Accession Will Trigger
Collapse
No, it did not; and Chinese politicians and entrepreneurs were adept at
circumventing any restraints that WTO rules and regulations might have
inhibited them.
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10 Sentences Without Verbs: Ideology and
Politics Restrain Progress
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11 Emerging in the East: Can the Chinese
State Evolve"
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12 Roads to Ruin: How the State Will Fall
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Epilogue The State Begins to Disintegrate
The author summarizes his outlook for China's future. "The Communist Party
has struggled to keep up with great change over the last two decades, but now
it is beginning to fail as it often cannot provide the basis needs of its
people." The subsequent 18+ years proved Dr. Chang totally wrong. The
change in China accelerated. Tens of millions of individuals were moved from
low productivity agriculture in rural regions into higher productivity
industrial work in new cities. The power of the Party to control the population
has increased. Massive quantities of foreign capital and intellectual high
technical knowledge has flowed into the country. China's economic, geoeconomic,
and military power has expanded dramatically.
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Michael Pillsbury - The Hundred-Year Marathon
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Jonathan Ward - China's Vision of
Victory
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Martin Jacques - When China Rules the
World
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Louis Vincent Gave - New World Order Will
have China on Top
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